Sunday, 8 July 2012

Delayed Rains Strain India Economy


NEW DELHI—Swaths of northern India are facing water shortages due to the late arrival of monsoon rains, deepening already acute power shortages and disrupting the sowing season of staple food crops at a time when India's economy is fragile.
On Friday, Sharad Pawar, India's agriculture minister, acknowledged for the first time the weather's toll on crops. "June rainfall was not satisfactory for agriculture and water reservoirs," Mr. Pawar said.
Associated Press
Hindu priests performed ritual prayers for monsoon rains at a temple in Ahmadabad, India, on Jul 1. Seasonal rains that typically begin in June haven't started in many parts of the country, threatening an important breadbasket region of the country. Efforts to pump water to irrigate dry land in preparation for planting season have taxed utilities.
Heavy monsoon rains typically arrive in June, but some parts of northern India, an expansive agricultural belt on which millions of people rely for food, have yet to see a drop. In some 82% of India, the average rainfall last month was a third below average. This shortfall has delayed the planting of crops such as pulses and oilseeds, Mr. Pawar said.
Government forecasters, he added, expect that the monsoon will come within days, and that any shortfall will be made up by heavy rains in July and August. Other experts, though, say the chance of a normal monsoon this season are slim.
For farmers, the delay in planting crops means lower yields come harvest time in October. The dry weather is hitting agricultural incomes, as many farmers turn to expensive diesel-powered generators to pump groundwater into empty irrigation canals.
"We are bearing heavy losses because of the delay in rains," said Harnel Singh Pataidi, a farmer who grows sugar cane and rice in Machipur, a village in the northern state of Punjab. "Even if rain comes in another few days, the sowing is already delayed by almost 15 days. We have no choice but to cope with the loss in yield."
Rajesh Kumar Singh/Associated Press
Farmers work in their field at Delhpur village, outskirts of Allahabad, India, July 4, 2012.
A drop in farm incomes could further destabilize India's economy, which grew at 5.3% in the first three months of 2012, its slowest rate in almost a decade, in large part because of a slowdown in export growth and a fall in investment.
The farm sector employs about half of the nation's workforce and contributes 17% to gross domestic product. A drop in agricultural profits would likely lead to a fall in rural spending. It could also push inflation back into double digits as food prices, already high, climb further.
"It obviously has a macroeconomic impact as it brings down agricultural output and impacts the overall consumption pattern," said Arunabha Ghosh, chief executive of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, a New Delhi-based think tank.
The shortages also are exacerbating an acute power shortage, as the country's hydroelectric plants, which generate 20% of the nation's power, face pressures. NHPC Ltd., a large state-owned hydroelectric power company, said this week that power generation at its plants had fallen 7% in the past 10 days due to water shortages.
India's power system—beset by a lack of investment and shortages of key inputs such as coal—can't keep up with soaring demand for electricity in the summer months.
Increased pumping of groundwater in farming areas due to water shortages has added to strains on the national grid, said Harry Dhaul, director-general of the Independent Power Producers Association of India, a trade group.
In New Delhi, India's capital, some residents say they have to scrape by without piped water on many days despite temperatures hitting 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit). Many residents also have resorted to pumping groundwater. "We are facing lots of problems. We get one or two hours of water supply and those are at odd hours like 3 or 4 a.m.," said K.K. Mittal, a resident of East of Kailsah, a New Delhi suburb.

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